Energy Security and Regional Power Shifts: Dangote Refinery and the Political Economy of Oil in Sub-Saharan Africa

Abstract

Energy security remains a critical challenge in Sub-Saharan Africa despite the continent’s vast hydrocarbon resources and growing investment in refining infrastructure. The emergence of the Dangote Refinery has generated significant scholarly and policy interest due to its potential to reshape regional fuel supply chains, reduce import dependence, and alter geopolitical power relations within Africa’s energy landscape. However, existing studies have paid limited attention to how large-scale private refining investments interact with broader regional energy governance and the strategic responses of other key energy-producing states.
This study examines the impact of the Dangote Refinery and other major energy actors on energy security in Nigeria, South Africa, and Angola. Using a comparative political economy approach and secondary data analysis, the study draws on policy documents, industry reports, and scholarly literature to evaluate refining capacity, supply stability, pricing dynamics, and regional trade implications. Findings indicate that the refinery strengthens Nigeria’s strategic energy position while generating competitive and cooperative responses from South Africa and Angola. The study concludes that regional energy security depends not only on infrastructure expansion but also on policy coordination, regulatory stability, and cross-border energy diplomacy. The paper recommends stronger regional energy governance frameworks to enhance sustainable and equitable energy security across Sub-Saharan Africa.