Agricultural Production Challenges: Climate, Land Area, and Industrialization in Batang Regency, Indonesia

Abstract

Climate change, land constraints, and industrialization pose major challenges to agricultural production in Indonesia, particularly in Batang Regency, Indonesia. This study examines the effects of temperature, precipitation, population density, agricultural land area, and industrialization on agricultural production using annual secondary data from Statistics Indonesia for the period 1979-2024. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach was employed to analyze both short run and long run relationship. The results indicate that the selected model is ARDL (1,1,0,0,0,0), with the Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test confirming variable station-arity and The Bounds Test indicating a long run cointegration relationship. In the short run, lagged temperature and agricultural land area have significant negative effects on agricultural production, whereas population density and industrialization have significant positive effects. In the long run, temperature and agricultural land area are negatively associated with agricultural production, whereas population density and industrialization continue to exert positive effects. Precipitation did not significantly influence agricultural production during either period. These findings highlight the importance of strengthening climate adaptation, improving land productivity, and promoting industrial development that supports agricultural sustainability through technological advancement and stronger agricultural industrial linkages.