Seasonal Climate Asymmetry and Livelihood Impacts in Kathua, Himalayan Foothills (1990-2024)

Abstract

The densely populated agrarian and agro-pastoral communities of the Himalayan foothills are extremely sensitive to seasonal climate changes. This research analyses trends in temperature and rainfall for the month, season, and year in the Kathua district of Jammu and Kashmir, India, from 1990 to 2024 using India Meteorological Department gridded data. The Mann–Kendall test procedure with the Hamed–Rao autocorrelation correction and Sen’s slope estimator is used for this study. The mean temperature over the years shows a small, statistically non-significant increasing trend of 0.012 °C yr⁻¹ (p = 0.16 during the study period), resulting in a change of 0.4 °C.  The overall average value presented hides a strong seasonal asymmetry: August (0.019 °C yr⁻¹; p = 0.047) and September (0.029 °C yr⁻¹; p < 0.05) exhibit a significant warming, whereas December shows statistically significant cooling under the autocorrelation-corrected test (–0.020 °C yr⁻¹; p = 0.018). The average annual rainfall across the years is 1417 mm, exhibiting a 19.5% coefficient of variation. No significant trend is detected in any month, season or year, but there is a high degree of interannual variability. Annual totals have ranged from 785mm (2002) to 1886mm (1995). The district’s climate hazard exposure appears to be concentrated in the late ‎monsoon agricultural calendar rather than in mean annual change. This has direct ramifications for thwarting kharif harvesting, rabi sowing and agro-pastoral adaptation planning.